YermitSep 23, 20212 min readBetting on the House: the maths angleAnother way to look at the Macau casino investment is simplifying the situation to binomial outcomes. The assumptions used are meant to...
YermitSep 22, 20216 min readBetting on the HouseThe last few months and particularly the last few weeks have particularly interesting for my style of investing. Fears on a China...
YermitAug 22, 20214 min readBlood in the Streets of ChinatownChinese stocks have continued to sell off over the past few weeks and last week Europe and the US even joined in the fun. The news flow...
YermitJun 6, 20214 min readSPAC vs SPARC - the Ackman differencePershing Square Tontine (PSTH) – Bill Ackman’s SPAC, finally announced a deal post market close on June 4, 2021 - to acquire 10% of...
YermitMay 15, 20213 min readGoats and Sheep Market fears on US macro, US/China tensions (including de-listing of Chinese companies from US exchanges), covid-19 surge, China internet...
YermitApr 20, 20216 min readOf Leaves and Trees and OrlogIt's been over two months since my last update. Before I get to financial market thoughts I wanted to share a philosophy which I came...
YermitJan 30, 20212 min readGame Fishing & TheoryWatching the price action I'm sad but a bit relieved that my concerns on GME becoming a black swan event for financial markets is likely...
YermitJan 4, 20214 min readBitcoin to the Moon (and back?)The animal spirits are strong in Bitcoin as prices hit >$30k and news and social discussions around it reach fevered pitch. The Bitcoin...
YermitAug 31, 20203 min readVAL restructuring updateSome important updates to the previous VAL restructuring post: 1. Different tranches of Senior Notes have different weightings This...
YermitAug 23, 20208 min readAsymmetric Plays: VAL, SPRA lot has happened over the past month and with the half year reporting season almost over, there have been many interesting updates...
YermitJun 7, 20202 min readGuidance is bullshitFantastic interview with Barry Diller on the absurdity of guidance. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HL3znM97fs8 Businesses and the...
YermitMay 20, 20205 min readState of PlayState of Play: "position reached in an activity or process that has not finished yet". Much like the current market position with...
YermitMay 10, 20208 min readHAS and CQE: 10/5/2020The month of May started off poorly for global markets but since mid last week global indices have shot off as the US pushed forward...
YermitApr 12, 20203 min readThe Coronavirus Saga: Actions and IdeasOne of the strategies I used during the coronavirus sell-off was to screen for companies with: >50% fall in stock price (180day peak to...
YermitMar 31, 20203 min readThe Coronavirus Saga: The BounceWhew! What has happened in the markets over the past month has made history. It was gut wrenching to be part of the pace and magnitude...
YermitFeb 1, 20207 min readTop Idea 1: JD.comI first started looking at JD.com in late 2016 and it became my top investment idea by the start of 2017. Unfortunately I couldn't...
YermitJun 15, 20192 min readStock autopsy: Offshore Oil RigsI started in the industry at a Fund manager best known for its contrarian, value and long term investment philosophy. I was lucky...
YermitDec 8, 20182 min readStock autopsy: Australian REITsIn the one to two decades prior to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), Australian REITs had been a favourite investment for local...