YermitJan 12, 20221 min readEnd of Blog/Beginning of Orlog CapitalThe operations of the Orlog Capital fund have begun so I will stop writing on financial events, stocks, etc on this blog. Instead, I...
YermitNov 27, 20212 min readThe limits of analysisThe discovery of the new South African variant yesterday caused global markets to fall dramatically as this new black swan event captured...
YermitSep 23, 20212 min readBetting on the House: the maths angleAnother way to look at the Macau casino investment is simplifying the situation to binomial outcomes. The assumptions used are meant to...
YermitSep 22, 20216 min readBetting on the HouseThe last few months and particularly the last few weeks have particularly interesting for my style of investing. Fears on a China...
YermitAug 23, 20211 min readThe US situationThe great Druckenmiller explains it. Same message as Dalio and the same thinking behind the bets being made by Dr Michael Burry:...
YermitAug 22, 20214 min readBlood in the Streets of ChinatownChinese stocks have continued to sell off over the past few weeks and last week Europe and the US even joined in the fun. The news flow...
YermitAug 2, 20213 min readPushing All-InI've been increasing my invested position rapidly over the week and half as the market sold off Chinese stocks en-mass. Today we're...
YermitJul 19, 20212 min readBuying FearWith the sell down over the past few weeks, the risk/reward payoffs offered by our existing names have become too compelling to resist. ...
YermitJun 6, 20214 min readSPAC vs SPARC - the Ackman differencePershing Square Tontine (PSTH) – Bill Ackman’s SPAC, finally announced a deal post market close on June 4, 2021 - to acquire 10% of...
YermitJun 2, 20213 min readFood for thoughtTwo wonderful interviews to share: https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/making-money-from-unloved-and-out-of-favour-stocks Interview...
YermitMay 16, 20211 min read13F filings: March 2021 quarterI like to see like minded investors on the register of companies I own or even better, increase their positions. Similarly their...
YermitMay 15, 20213 min readGoats and Sheep Market fears on US macro, US/China tensions (including de-listing of Chinese companies from US exchanges), covid-19 surge, China internet...
YermitApr 20, 20216 min readOf Leaves and Trees and OrlogIt's been over two months since my last update. Before I get to financial market thoughts I wanted to share a philosophy which I came...
YermitFeb 1, 20212 min readFreedom to LosePre US market open today I want to jot down a few more thoughts on the WSB/Main Street revolution. Firstly I'll jump ahead to the main...
YermitJan 30, 20211 min readP.S.My last Thursday's post outlining my fears of contagion effects from GameStop on the US financial system was likely wrong. However the...
YermitJan 30, 20212 min readGame Fishing & TheoryWatching the price action I'm sad but a bit relieved that my concerns on GME becoming a black swan event for financial markets is likely...
YermitJan 29, 20212 min readThe Bus that You Don't SeeThe old saying "its the bus you don't see that hits you" is never more appropriate than now. Unless you've been hiding under a rock,...
YermitJan 23, 20212 min readWhat's next?Another two weeks and the major global stock markets are still looking as frothy as ever. The spike in new retail investment accounts,...
YermitJan 10, 20214 min readFirst week of 2021January 7, 2021 was as a special day: Bitcoin breached $40k, Elon Musk become the world's richest man ($185bn) after Tesla's share price...
YermitJan 4, 20214 min readBitcoin to the Moon (and back?)The animal spirits are strong in Bitcoin as prices hit >$30k and news and social discussions around it reach fevered pitch. The Bitcoin...
